1. Executive Summary
Given the speed with which the situation on the ground can evolve following rapid onset natural disasters – in terms of the specific needs of the effected population and considering the actions taken by the variety of international and local actors, especially the effected population themselves - further assessment is often necessary at the early stages of emergency responses. In order to update initial rapid needs assessments and provide inputs into the Nepal earthquake FSL response strategy, a livelihoods recovery assessment was conducted from June 30 – July 13th, 2015. The assessment consisted of 1) Focus Group Discussions with community representatives, 2) interviews with the most vulnerable households in order to cross-check the information gained from the FGD’s, 3) market trader interviews, and 4) key informant interviews with a variety of local government officials. Three districts – Dolakha, Sindapulchok and Gorkha - were assessed.
Summary of main findings:
Chronic nature of FSL needs. The majority of the food and economic security issues were found to be chronic in nature (e.g. a significant proportion of landless or land-poor households, geographic isolation and poor access to markets leading to limited options for diverse livelihood strategies, low levels of education and marketable skills, etc.). These longer-term difficulties lead to perpetual food and economic insecurity for the most vulnerable households even in a normal, non-crisis year and would normally necessitate a quicker shift from relief to development programming.
The main impacts of the earthquake are linked to reductions in household income, increased shelter expenditure and a corresponding increase in debt. Due to the timing of the earthquake and the approaching monsoon season the immediate priority for most households was shelter. However, only transitional shelters were feasible with the time and resources available. Migrant labourers, who normally provide a significant portion of household income, returned home for several weeks to assist with shelter rehabilitation, forgoing weeks of income. This, coupled with a reduction in seasonal agricultural labour opportunities (due partially to the earthquake) has led many households to take on additional debt to supplement any cash and in-kind support provided by the government and humanitarian organisations for shelter rehabilitation.
The majority of market traders have recovered, though significant challenges remain for a full stabilisation of market activities. While the majority of market traders in the assessed areas have already recovered to a significant extent (many of whom took on additional debt to do so) the remaining challenges to restoring market stability are 1) the lack of purchasing power at the community and household level, and 2) the significant level of in-kind relief distributions that have been on-going for the past few months. However, it should be noted that in some of the more isolated VDC’s in the northern parts of the assessed districts the situation is likely more difficult and the levels of market function are assumed to be reduced.
Relief distributions are reducing the pressure on families for now. Due to the multiple (and often overlapping) actors distributing food (most notably the WFP and NGO partners) the food security situation at present was found to be stable with many communities having weeks or even a few months of food stocks and the majority of households eating 2 meals a day (the norm in assessed areas) roughly comparable to their pre-earthquake diets in most cases. Food related negative coping remains minimal. However, the “stability” of the current situation is misleading due to a variety of factors and there is a risk of deterioration of household food and economic security moving forward. Slow onset and reduced rainfall for the current monsoon season. Low levels of rainfall as well as the late arrival of the monsoon is problematic for two of the main cultivation seasons in some areas . The current maize harvest will be reduced in many areas. Additionally, levels of paddy planting are reduced and/or delayed in some areas due to the lack of water. This not only reduces the amount of agricultural labour opportunities that are available but also reduces the food production capacity of the poorest households who are much more reliant on rain-fed agriculture.
The next few months are critical. Considering the reduction in income for many households due to the earthquake and the reduced levels of agricultural activity during the current cultivation seasons, moving forward we are likely to see many of the poor and very poor households making difficult decisions/prioritisations around household expenses which may have a negative effect on children across many thematic sectors (education, health, shelter, etc.) due to 1) food distributions stopping and remaining food stocks being consumed, 2) the increased reliance on markets for rice resulting in price rises. The impact of household income and food security would become especially apparent if worries of reduced paddy harvests materialise. There are risks of an extended and more severe lean season from the end of summer onwards. Looking even further ahead, the impact of the current El Nino conditions on subsequent cultivation seasons remains unclear, but does represent a risk to future food and economic security.
Main Recommendations:
Cash transfer programming
• Moving into the lean season, if the food security situation deteriorates, unconditional cash transfers would still be appropriate if targeted to the very poor.
• Conditional cash transfers (for livelihood recovery, etc.) is likely more appropriate for poor households. Many of the very poor are perpetually food and income insecure and would likely need supplementary support to cover basic needs as they recover lost assets or diversify livelihood activities.
• Cash for work may be an effective intervention if 1) the availability of labour in VDC’s can support it; 2) the work schemes do not interfere with other seasonal activities (especially agricultural labour), and 3) the work schemes are in-line with community priorities. CFW options need to be assessed on a case-by-case basis.
Agriculture and livestock
• The availability of seeds in the assessed zones was not flagged as a major issue (despite the losses at a household level for many affected communities), however, support to storage capacity could become a more prominent issue moving forwards.
• If there is a need to support agricultural inputs, local markets are well placed to support a voucher system for seeds and most tools.
• Livestock interventions might be more appropriate for the poor considering its importance to household income for this group.
Food security monitoring
• While the current situation is not as indicated in recent IPC reports (e.g. a level 4) it does have a significant potential to deteriorate over the next few months. Therefore, simple and “people focused” monitoring should be put in place which captures negative coping strategies, food consumption/diet diversity and income and expenditure patterns.
• Price monitoring for key food and non-food commodities will also be crucial to determining future FSL needs in the affected areas.
Vulnerability, pre and post-earthquake
• There is a significant difference in terms of resilience between the “very poor” and all other wealth groups (land access and food production, labour availability, mobility and the ability to access higher paying jobs, etc.). The issues around socio-economic vulnerability need to play a larger part in the design and targeting of SC Nepal’s interventions.
Further assessments are necessary
• In order to deepen our understanding of food security needs as well as income and expenditure patterns post shock, more detailed household economy analysis following the monsoon season is highly advisable.
• Considering the importance of migrant labour and potential unforeseen effects on migrant patters, further labour markets assessments are also highly advisable.
• Feasibility studies for support to income generating activities – especially those targeted to the “very poor” (considering their lack of labour capacity and skills set) are also necessary.
Longer-term recovery and development
• Following the “problematic” next few months (through the lean season and up-coming paddy harvest) there needs to be a more rapid shift towards development programming following the monsoon season.
• SC Nepal should prioritise longer term funding for these activities, now.