Summary
2015/16 summer crop situation
Total production of summer crops (paddy, maize, millet and buckwheat) was estimated at 6.8 million mt, a decrease of 5.63 percent compared to 2014/15 and a decrease of 5.3 percent compared to the preceding five-year average. At 6.8 million mt, the production of paddy, maize, millet and buckwheat was estimated at 4.3 million mt, 2.23 million mt, 302,398 mt and 11,641 mt respectively.
The production of paddy decreased by 9.95 percent compared to the five-year average and decreased by 10.22 percent compared to 2014/15. Despite the decrease, paddy contributed to 63 percent of the total summer crop output in 2015/16. The central region produced an estimated 1.1 million mt of paddy, which was 26.9 percent of the national aggregate and the largest of the five development regions. The top five paddy producing districts in 2015/16 were Jhapa, Morang, Rupandehi, Kailali and Bardiya.
Overall, growing conditions for 2015/16 summer crops were reported as poor. The monsoon was delayed and weak at the onset, which delayed paddy transplantation, especially in the eastern Terai.
Fertilizer supply and irrigation were also constrained due to disruptions to cross-border trade with India and the shortage of fuel.
Trade and food market situation
According to the Trade and Export Promotion Centre (TEPC), the value of foreign trade during the first five months of fiscal year 2072/73 was 232.66 billion NPR, a decrease of 35.5 percent compared the same period last year (2071/72). The share of exports and imports stood at 11.2 percent (26 billion NPR) and 88.8 percent (206.66 billion NPR) respectively. During this period, the share of cereals in total imports was 4.94 percent (10.2 billion NPR), which is a decrease of 20.5 percent in value compared to 2071/72. The import of fertilizers also decreased by 21.5 percent in value, with fertilizer worth NPR 4.7 billion imported during this period.
Wholesale prices of paddy and maize increased by 3.5 percent and 1.1 percent respectively in November 2015 compared to 2 percent and 5.1 percent respectively in November 2014. The overall wholesale price index (WPI) increased by 7.9 percent in December 2015 compared to an increase of 6.6 percent over the same period last year. The WPI of pulses showed the greatest increase at 59 percent in December 2015 compared to 8.6 percent in December 2014.
In India, the first advance estimate for 2015-16 Kharif (monsoon) crop production was 124.05 million mt, which is 83.78 million mt higher than last year’s Kharif crop production.
2016 winter crop outlook
Poor winter rains during crop growth is expected to decrease wheat production. Production may decrease even further due to the poor supply of fertilizer and seeds arising from the disruptions to cross-border trade and the shortage of fuel. As a result, the Government of Nepal has projected a 30 percent wheat production decrease in 2015/16 in a recent white paper. District food security networks have reported that drought conditions have affected many districts in the mid- and farwestern regions since mid-2015. This is confirmed by the latest satellite-based earth observation data. NeKSAP will provide preliminary estimates of 2015/16 wheat production using CRAFT from mid-March and document the latest food security situation in the new Nepal Food Security Bulletin.