FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Paddy production forecast to recover in 2016
- Cereal imports in 2016/17 (July/June) marketing year to reach record level
- Pockets of severe food insecurity persist
Paddy production forecast to recover in 2016
Planting of the 2016 summer (monsoon) crops, mostly paddy, is ongoing. Rains have been above average over most of the country since mid‑May, benefitting transplanting activities. Excessive precipitation triggered localized flooding and landslides in parts of Central and Western Regions, but the impact on early‑planted crop is expected to be minimal. Assuming normal weather prevails and given reported adequate fertilizer supplies, FAO forecasts the 2016 paddy output to recover to 4.8 million tonnes, up 13 percent from the reduced 2015 level.
The 2016 maize crop is currently in the late development stages. FAO forecasts the 2016 maize output to remain close to last year’s near-average level.
The 2016 wheat crop, harvested by June, is estimated at 1.4 million tonnes, 11 percent below the 2015 already‑reduced level. This is the result of both area and yields reductions, due to poor rains during the growing season, coupled with reduced seed, fertilizer and fuel availability, following the disruptions of cross‑border trade with India from September 2015 to February 2016.
Cereal imports in 2016/17 marketing year (July/June) to reach record level
Cereal imports in the 2016/17 marketing year (July/June) are forecast to reach a record level of 962 000 tonnes. Reflecting lower wheat output in 2016, imports are expected to almost double to 250 000 tonnes. Similarly, rice imports are anticipated to increase slightly to 550 000 tonnes in calendar year 2016, reflecting the reduced 2015 production. Maize imports are expected to remain close to last year’s level of 200 000 tonnes.
Pockets of severe food insecurity persist
According to official reports, as of April 2016, large number of people, mostly concentrated in the districts of Gorkha (Western Region) and Dhading, Rasuwa, Dolakha and Ramechhap (northern parts of Central Region) remain highly food insecure, following the widespread devastation caused by the major earthquake in April 2015 that resulted in at least 9 000 deaths. Authorities indicate a significant deterioration of food security situation in remote areas, including Karnali (Mid-Western Region) and district of Bajura (Far-Western Region) due to combination of cereal production shortfalls for the second consecutive year and reduced income from agricultural activities. Furthermore, recent floods and landslides negatively affected large number of people particularly in the northern parts of Western and Central Regions as well as southern areas of Eastern Region.